Will Dubai Property Prices Drop in 2027? Emaar Founder Weighs In
Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar says Dubai's property market is heading for a "nice balance" in 2027 as new supply arrives, with a possible 5-10% price adjustment tied to the Iran war.
Dubai's property market is set for a "nice balance" in 2027 as a wave of new housing supply lands, according to Emaar Properties founder Mohamed Alabbar. Speaking at the AIM Congress in Dubai this week, he also said the ongoing Iran war could cause prices to soften by 5 to 10 percent. That is a much smaller correction than the 15 percent drop some feared earlier this year.
This matters because Alabbar is not a random commentator. He runs the largest listed developer in the emirate and has direct visibility into sales, cancellations, and buyer behavior across dozens of projects.
What exactly did Alabbar say?
According to The National, Alabbar told delegates he is
"getting ready for 2027," pointing to a lot of new supply coming that should create a nice balance in the city
. When asked directly about the war's impact on real estate, he estimated
an adjustment of 5 percent to 10 percent because it's an extraordinary situation
.
That is notable because five months earlier, per Gulf News, Alabbar had floated a steeper post-war scenario where
values could fall 15 per cent
. His new figure is roughly half that, suggesting the market has held up better than initially feared.
Is Emaar cutting prices like other developers?
No. Alabbar was clear that Emaar is not following the discounting trend seen elsewhere in the market. He noted that
some developers are offering price cuts ranging from 20 to 50 per cent
, but Emaar has chosen a different path, backed by
strong cash flow and low debt
.
That distinction matters for buyers scanning listings right now. A steep discount from a smaller or newer developer is not necessarily a sign of a great deal. It could reflect cash flow pressure, project risk, or an attempt to move slow-selling inventory. Established developers with strong balance sheets have less incentive to slash prices just to generate short-term sales volume.
How has the Iran war actually affected Dubai real estate?
The impact shows up most clearly in cancellation data. Khaleej Times reported that
Emaar saw unit cancellations rise from a 700 average to 1,000 during the conflict, before dropping to 550 once a ceasefire was announced
. That swing shows buyers pulled back when geopolitical risk spiked, then came right back once the picture calmed down.
Alabbar downplayed talk of a crisis altogether. He
said he doesn't look at it as a crisis, calling it adjustment time, and said the company's cash position and low debt make it a good time to expand
. Even so, he left the door open for a stronger rebound, saying that
if the situation settles, the market could become pretty fast
again.
Separately, Emaar's scale gives weight to his read on the market. The company currently has
90,000 units under production across 18 global markets and has not slowed development despite regional geopolitical uncertainty
.
What does this mean for buyers and investors?
A 5 to 10 percent adjustment is manageable, not alarming. For buyers sitting on cash, this window before 2027's supply wave lands could offer better entry points without the risk of a market-wide crash. For investors already holding property, the message from one of Dubai's most influential developers is that this is a temporary cooling phase tied to a specific geopolitical event, not a structural downturn.
The bigger supply wave expected in 2027 is worth watching closely. More inventory usually means more negotiating power for buyers and softer rental growth for landlords in certain segments. Investors targeting off-plan units should factor delivery timelines into that supply picture rather than assuming today's pricing trends hold steady for the next two years.
Is Dubai property about to crash?
No. Alabbar's own comments point to a 5 to 10 percent adjustment tied to the Iran war, a much smaller move than the 15 percent decline once discussed as a worst-case scenario.
Why isn't Emaar offering discounts like other developers?
Emaar says its strong cash flow and low debt let it hold pricing steady while some competitors offer cuts as high as 50 percent to keep sales moving.
When will the next wave of supply hit the Dubai market?
Alabbar is pointing to 2027 as the year a significant volume of new housing supply arrives, which he expects will bring more balance to pricing across the city.
Photo by Md Ishak Rahman on Unsplash.
